The reversal in the price of oil yesterday was not wholly unexpected as the commodity reacted to the potential for more US fiscal relief and the hope this might translate into a boost for demand, a sentiment which seems to be continuing in trading today as WTI crude oil futures regain the $40 per barrel level and are trading at $40.14 per barrel at the time of writing. However, as we can see from the associated volume this appears to be nothing more than a whimsical hope, as we should have expected to see a dramatic increase in volume for such as wide-spread up candle which was not the case. Compare the volume yesterday with equivalent candles in September and this tells its own story and if oil is to recover, it will require a dramatic change in the supply and demand equation, with real demand driving the equation, something which is a dim hope for the future, unless and until OPEC steps in.
Note also how the volume falls away on each rally and confirming a lack of participation and any desire to move the price of oil beyond the $41.25 per barrel area where the volume point of control currently resides. It will be interesting to see how the price action closes today and any associated volume, particularly if we have a narrow spread candle on falling volume suggesting yet another weak effort to rally. And to the upside, the first stopping point is the volume point of control denoted with the yellow dashed line where previous rallies have also stalled.
By Anna Coulling
Charts from NinjaTrader and indicators from Quantum Trading
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