As expected, oil has continued its longer-term bullish sentiment and is now moving firmly towards the $85 per barrel price target I highlighted some time ago as the initial pause point at the extreme of the VPOC histogram. What is also clear on this chart is the significance of the $75 per barrel level which brought a halt to the rally of the summer months. Now we have this level acting as a strong platform of support as we continue higher following its breach in late September.
The current rally started with the two-bar reversal in August which saw the prior week engulfed with the up candle and in doing so, sending a strong signal buying. Since then we have seen oil rise on rising volume on the weekly chart confirming this is a genuine and longer-term move from a technical perspective.
Stepping down to the monthly chart gives us that all-important longer term perspective, and here we can see the significance of the level now being tested as the markets open on the new trading week. This price is denoted with the red dashed line of the accumulation and distribution indicator at $83 per barrel with the price currently trading at $83.02 per barrel at the time of writing. It was this level that precipitated the collapse in oil prices in 2018 and whilst this is not something I anticipate this time around, we must nevertheless be aware of its significance and potential. Its significance is that it may cause a temporary pause before we push on towards the $85 per barrel area. Thereafter, $90 per barrel comes into view which is where volume falls away dramatically on the VPOC histogram.
By Anna Coulling
Charts from NinjaTrader and indicators from Quantum Trading
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